H.Res. 971 — Condemning the coercive actions of the People's Republic of China against Japan in response to statements regarding Taiwan and reaffirming the United States commitment to its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Condemning the coercive actions of the People's Republic of China aga… — reported and queued, quiet for 72 days; 38% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 313 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–416 (quartiles 222–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	282 [193–409]	90%
suspension	37%	366 [238–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Young Kim (R). Latest action (2026-03-26): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 45 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).