S. 1000 — A bill to establish an Ambassador-at-Large for Arctic Affairs.

7%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Establish an Ambassador-at-Large for Arctic Affairs. — on the calendar, quiet for 219 days; 18% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

18%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

36%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 65% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 72 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–97 (quartiles 56–90). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 65% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	75 [51–97]	98%
passage	95%	72 [48–97]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Lisa Murkowski (R). Latest action (2025-10-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 231.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).