S. 1041 — Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Act

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Affordable Prescriptions for Patients Act — on the calendar, quiet for 422 days; 10% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

32%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 57% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–96 (quartiles 54–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 57% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [50–97]	96%
passage	95%	69 [46–96]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: John Cornyn (R). Latest action (2025-04-10): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 44.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).