S. 1135 — A bill to amend the National Trails System Act to direct the Secretary of the Interior to conduct a study on the feasibility of designating the Bonneville Shoreline Trail.

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Amend the National Trails System Act to direct the Secretary of the I… — reported and queued, quiet for 94 days; 8% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

28%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 46% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–94 (quartiles 52–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 46% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [50–96]	96%
passage	95%	65 [48–94]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: John R. Curtis (R). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).