S. 1216 — Taiwan Allies Fund Act

9%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Taiwan Allies Fund Act — on the calendar, quiet for 116 days; 23% to reach the floor, 9% to become law.

23%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

40%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 68% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 23% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 70 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–97 (quartiles 57–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 68% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	74 [48–98]	95%
passage	95%	69 [42–96]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: Chris Van Hollen (D). Latest action (2026-02-10): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 321.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).