S. 1262 — A bill to require the Secretary of Agriculture to release a reversionary interest in certain land in the Black River State Forest in Millston, Wisconsin, and for other purposes.

9%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Require the Secretary of Agriculture to release a reversionary intere… — on the calendar, quiet for 222 days; 18% to reach the floor, 9% to become law.

18%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

49%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 41–93 (quartiles 52–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 45% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	67 [45–96]	92%
passage	95%	63 [41–92]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ron Johnson (R). Latest action (2025-10-27): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 209.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).