← all forecasts
S. 129 — No Tax on Tips Act
19%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
No Tax on Tips Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 376 days; projected 310 yea if called, enactment 19%.
→
19%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 310 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–415
(quartiles 226–397). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
281 [199–402] |
92% |
| suspension | 88% |
314 [210–415] |
97% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2025-05-26):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).