S. 1320 — Servicewomen and Veterans Menopause Research Act

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Servicewomen and Veterans Menopause Research Act — would clear the Senate (76%) but only 9% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

50%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 76% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 9% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 73 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–97 (quartiles 60–90). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 76% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	76 [51–97]	96%
passage	95%	73 [45–97]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Patty Murray (D). Latest action (2025-12-02): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 275.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).