S. 1440 — Uniformed Services Leave Parity Act

39%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Uniformed Services Leave Parity Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 232 days; projected 332 yea if called, enactment 39%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

39%

downstream: House + President

39%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 332 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–417 (quartiles 275–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	298 [202–412]	92%
suspension	88%	337 [216–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tammy Duckworth (D). Latest action (2025-10-17): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).