S. 1478 — Countering Wrongful Detention Act of 2025

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Countering Wrongful Detention Act — on the calendar, quiet for 353 days; 8% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

38%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 54% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 39–96 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 54% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	72 [48–97]	96%
passage	95%	66 [38–96]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: James E. Risch (R). Latest action (2025-06-18): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 94.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).