S. 1513 — Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe Project Lands Restoration Act

14%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe Project Lands Restoration Act — reported and queued; 38% to reach the floor, 14% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

38%

survives downstream

14%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 34–95 (quartiles 52–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 51% (simple-majority P = 85%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [46–95]	92%
passage	95%	63 [32–95]	84%

Receipts

Sponsor: Maria Cantwell (D). Latest action (2026-05-20): Committee on Indian Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).