S. 1533 — A bill to amend title 38, United States Code, to make permanent and codify the pilot program for use of contract physicians for disability examinations, and for other purposes.

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Amend title 38, United States Code, to make permanent and codify the… — reported and queued, quiet for 311 days; 2% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

55%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 59% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 2% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–96 (quartiles 54–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 59% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [46–96]	94%
passage	95%	69 [48–96]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jerry Moran (R). Latest action (2025-07-30): Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).