S. 1552 — Living Donor Protection Act of 2025

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Living Donor Protection Act — on the calendar, quiet for 87 days; 24% to reach the floor, 11% to become law.

24%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

47%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 68% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 24% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 74 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 51–97 (quartiles 57–92). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 68% (simple-majority P = 98%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	79 [53–98]	98%
passage	95%	74 [51–97]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tom Cotton (R). Latest action (2026-03-11): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 352.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).