S. 1555 — Made in America Manufacturing Finance Act of 2025

9%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Made in America Manufacturing Finance Act — on the calendar, quiet for 24 days; 28% to reach the floor, 9% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

34%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–96 (quartiles 54–88). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 56% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	76 [50–97]	96%
passage	95%	69 [48–96]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joni Ernst (R). Latest action (2026-05-13): Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).