S. 1591 — ARCA Act of 2025

49%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

ARCA Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 173 days; projected 339 yea if called, enactment 49%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

49%

downstream: House + President

49%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 339 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–418 (quartiles 275–409). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	301 [202–414]	91%
suspension	88%	344 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jerry Moran (R). Latest action (2025-12-15): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).