S. 1595 — Improving Police CARE Act

42%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Improving Police CARE Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 309 days; projected 321 yea if called, enactment 42%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

42%

downstream: House + President

42%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 321 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–416 (quartiles 242–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	295 [197–413]	91%
suspension	88%	324 [212–417]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: John Cornyn (R). Latest action (2025-08-01): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).