S. 1602 — Mathematical and Statistical Modeling Education Act

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Mathematical and Statistical Modeling Education Act — reported and queued, quiet for 78 days; 10% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

30%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 58% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 41–96 (quartiles 54–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 58% (simple-majority P = 90%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	72 [40–98]	92%
passage	95%	67 [41–96]	89%

Receipts

Sponsor: Margaret Wood Hassan (D). Latest action (2026-03-20): Referred sequentially to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, pursuant to the order of March 3, 1988, for 30 calendar days excluding any day on which the Senate is not in session, and if not reported by that day, the Committee be discharged from further consideration thereof, and
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).