S. 1665 — OATH Act of 2025

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

OATH Act — reported and queued, quiet for 80 days; 5% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

55%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 64% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 5% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 42–96 (quartiles 55–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 64% (simple-majority P = 90%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [46–96]	93%
passage	95%	68 [42–96]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: Richard Blumenthal (D). Latest action (2026-03-18): Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).