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S. 1680 — Virginia Wilderness Additions Act of 2025
2%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
on_calendar
Virginia Wilderness Additions Act — on the calendar, quiet for 222 days; 6% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.
×
99%
passes if voted (stage model)
The gap: on the floor this would pass —
47% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part:
6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.
If it reaches the floor
Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 31–95
(quartiles 51–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 47%
(simple-majority P = 83%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 5% |
66 [38–96] |
88% |
| passage | 95% |
62 [30–95] |
83% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Tim Kaine (D). Latest action (2025-10-27):
Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 213.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).