535.fyi Calibrated odds on what Congress actually does. backtest-calibrated · live scoring as votes land · track record

← all forecasts

S. 1728 — Employee Ownership Representation Act of 2025

21%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Employee Ownership Representation Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 232 days; projected 317 yea if called, enactment 21%.

passed the Senate
21%
downstream: House + President
=
21%
becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 317 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 242–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

ProcedureLikelihood Projected yeaPasses
passage12% 267 [188–394] 88%
suspension88% 324 [212–417] 97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bill Cassidy (R). Latest action (2025-10-17): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).