S. 1809 — Drone Espionage Act

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Drone Espionage Act — on the calendar, quiet for 117 days; 17% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

17%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

28%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 48% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–94 (quartiles 52–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 48% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	64 [47–94]	95%
passage	95%	66 [47–94]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ashley Moody (R). Latest action (2026-02-09): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 316.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).