S. 1837 — DEFIANCE Act of 2025

36%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

DEFIANCE Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 144 days; projected 336 yea if called, enactment 36%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

36%

downstream: House + President

36%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 336 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 215–418 (quartiles 276–405). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	292 [195–413]	91%
suspension	88%	341 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Richard J. Durbin (D). Latest action (2026-01-13): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).