S. 1854 — Haiti Criminal Collusion Transparency Act of 2025

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Haiti Criminal Collusion Transparency Act — would clear the Senate (71%) but only 3% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

31%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 71% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 3% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 71 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–96 (quartiles 58–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 71% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	74 [46–96]	92%
passage	95%	70 [43–96]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jeanne Shaheen (D). Latest action (2025-10-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 233.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).