S. 1890 — Carla Walker Act

25%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Carla Walker Act — real floor momentum (58% to a vote, on the calendar); 58% if called.

58%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

44%

survives downstream

25%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 70 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–97 (quartiles 54–89). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 58% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	71 [50–96]	96%
passage	95%	70 [48–97]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: John Cornyn (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 419.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).