S. 1898 — ORBITS Act of 2025

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

ORBITS Act — reported and queued, quiet for 114 days; 22% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

22%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

22%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 63% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 22% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–96 (quartiles 56–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 63% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [46–97]	94%
passage	95%	69 [44–96]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: John W. Hickenlooper (D). Latest action (2026-02-12): Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).