S. 2016 — Chugach Alaska Land Exchange Oil Spill Recovery Act of 2025

7%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Chugach Alaska Land Exchange Oil Spill Recovery Act of 2025 — reported and queued, quiet for 171 days; 21% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

36%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–94 (quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 94%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [46–95]	94%
passage	95%	66 [47–94]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Lisa Murkowski (R). Latest action (2025-12-17): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported with an amendment in the nature of a substitute favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).