S. 2018 — A bill to modify certain limitations and exclusions regarding defense articles and requirements regarding security assistance and sales with respect to the Republic of Cyprus.

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Modify certain limitations and exclusions regarding defense articles… — on the calendar, quiet for 219 days; 11% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

11%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 55% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 11% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 36–96 (quartiles 53–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 55% (simple-majority P = 87%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	67 [40–96]	87%
passage	95%	66 [36–96]	87%

Receipts

Sponsor: Cory A. Booker (D). Latest action (2025-10-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 234.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).