S. 2098 — Southcentral Foundation Land Transfer Act of 2025

6%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Southcentral Foundation Land Transfer Act of 2025 — reported and queued; 21% to reach the floor, 6% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

29%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 48–95 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 50% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [48–96]	95%
passage	95%	67 [47–95]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Lisa Murkowski (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Committee on Indian Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).