S. 2102 — Ralph David Abernathy, Sr., National Historic Site Act

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Ralph David Abernathy, Sr., National Historic Site Act — reported and queued, quiet for 94 days; 10% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 27–94 (quartiles 49–72). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 40% (simple-majority P = 77%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	66 [29–95]	88%
passage	95%	59 [27–93]	76%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jon Ossoff (D). Latest action (2026-03-04): Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).