535.fyi Calibrated odds on what Congress actually does. backtest-calibrated · live scoring as votes land · track record

← all forecasts

S. 2110 — REUSE Act of 2025

33%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

REUSE Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 198 days; projected 319 yea if called, enactment 33%.

passed the Senate
33%
downstream: House + President
=
33%
becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 319 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 254–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

ProcedureLikelihood Projected yeaPasses
passage12% 291 [195–412] 90%
suspension88% 322 [212–416] 97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jeff Merkley (D). Latest action (2025-11-20): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).