S. 2126 — Integrated Ocean Observation System Reauthorization Act of 2025

12%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Integrated Ocean Observation System Reauthorization Act — on the calendar, quiet for 26 days; 38% to reach the floor, 12% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

33%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–96 (quartiles 54–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 55% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	75 [51–97]	96%
passage	95%	68 [49–96]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Roger F. Wicker (R). Latest action (2026-05-11): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 405.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).