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S. 2132 — CLEAR Path Act
40%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
CLEAR Path Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 45 days; projected 323 yea if called, enactment 40%.
→
40%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 323 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417
(quartiles 243–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
285 [201–409] |
91% |
| suspension | 88% |
328 [213–417] |
98% |
Receipts
Sponsor: John Cornyn (R). Latest action (2026-04-22):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).