S. 2232 — Expanding the Surety Bond Program Act of 2025

31%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Expanding the Surety Bond Program Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 33 days; projected 345 yea if called, enactment 31%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

31%

downstream: House + President

31%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 345 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 218–417 (quartiles 306–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	298 [202–412]	91%
suspension	88%	351 [223–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Edward J. Markey (D). Latest action (2026-05-04): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).