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S. 2280 — A bill to transfer administrative jurisdiction over certain parcels of Federal land in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, and for other purposes.
26%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
Transfer administrative jurisdiction over certain parcels of Federal… — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 33 days; projected 329 yea if called, enactment 26%.
→
26%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 329 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–417
(quartiles 259–405). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
262 [197–400] |
88% |
| suspension | 88% |
337 [217–418] |
99% |
Receipts
Sponsor: James C. Justice (R). Latest action (2026-05-04):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).