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S. 2296 — National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026
34%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
National Defense Authorization Act — must-pass class. Waiting on the house, quiet for 206 days; the 34% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.
→
34%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 339 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 215–418
(quartiles 272–409). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
299 [207–413] |
95% |
| suspension | 88% |
344 [218–418] |
>99% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Roger F. Wicker (R). Latest action (2025-11-12):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).