S. 233 — Restoring Confidence in the World Anti-Doping Agency Act of 2025

13%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Restoring Confidence in the World Anti-Doping Agency Act — on the calendar, quiet for 103 days; 28% to reach the floor, 13% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

48%

survives downstream

13%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–94 (quartiles 53–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 51% (simple-majority P = 95%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [51–97]	96%
passage	95%	66 [47–94]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Marsha Blackburn (R). Latest action (2026-02-23): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 340.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).