S. 2342 — Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Intelligence Authorization Act — on the calendar, quiet for 312 days; <1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

39%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 51% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–95 (quartiles 53–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 51% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [48–96]	95%
passage	95%	67 [46–95]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tom Cotton (R). Latest action (2025-07-29): By Senator Cotton from Select Committee on Intelligence filed written report. Report No. 119-51. Minority views filed.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).