S. 2351 — Space Exploration Research Act

7%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Space Exploration Research Act — on the calendar, quiet for 54 days; 37% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–94 (quartiles 52–83). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	68 [47–96]	94%
passage	95%	65 [47–94]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2026-04-13): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 369.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).