← all forecasts
S. 236 — A bill to amend the Act of August 9, 1955 (commonly known as the "Long-Term Leasing Act"), to authorize leases of up to 99 years for land in the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe Reservation and land held in trust for the Wampano…
22%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
reported
Amend the Act of August 9, 1955 (commonly known as the "Long-Term Lea… — real floor momentum (51% to a vote, reported and queued); 49% if called.
×
99%
passes if voted (stage model)
If it reaches the floor
Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 37–95
(quartiles 52–77). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 49%
(simple-majority P = 84%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 5% |
66 [39–96] |
86% |
| passage | 95% |
63 [36–94] |
84% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Edward J. Markey (D). Latest action (2026-05-20):
Committee on Indian Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).