S. 2398 — Kay Hagan Tick Reauthorization Act

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Kay Hagan Tick Reauthorization Act — would clear the Senate (72%, 23 cosponsors) but only 6% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

43%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 72% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 75 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 51–97 (quartiles 59–92). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 72% (simple-majority P = 97%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	78 [53–97]	98%
passage	95%	74 [51–97]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Susan M. Collins (R). Latest action (2025-09-08): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 154.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).