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S. 240 — Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Amendments Act of 2025
42%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
Crow Tribe Water Rights Settlement Amendments Act of 2025 — cleared the Senate by consent; waiting on the House, quiet for 173 days. The ~42% is the model hedging: House scheduling, not support, decides this class, and we can't yet tell its members apart.
→
42%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 320 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417
(quartiles 245–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
260 [184–381] |
88% |
| suspension | 88% |
328 [212–417] |
97% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Steve Daines (R). Latest action (2025-12-15):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).