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S. 2403 — Retire through Ownership Act
24%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
Retire through Ownership Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 232 days; projected 316 yea if called, enactment 24%.
→
24%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416
(quartiles 236–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
260 [194–397] |
84% |
| suspension | 88% |
323 [211–416] |
97% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Roger Marshall (R). Latest action (2025-10-17):
Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).