S. 241 — Northern Montana Water Security Act of 2025

2%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Northern Montana Water Security Act — reported and queued, quiet for 458 days; 7% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

28%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 41% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–91 (quartiles 51–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 41% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	64 [43–95]	88%
passage	95%	61 [44–90]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Steve Daines (R). Latest action (2025-03-05): Committee on Indian Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).