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S. 2503 — ROTOR Act
12%becomes law
high confidencepending: House
passed_one_chamber
ROTOR Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 102 days; projected 302 yea if called, enactment 12%.
→
12%
downstream: House + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 302 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–413
(quartiles 222–391). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
House would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| passage | 12% |
289 [202–411] |
90% |
| suspension | 88% |
304 [206–414] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Ted Cruz (R). Latest action (2026-02-24):
On motion to suspend the rules and pass the bill Failed by the Yeas and Nays: (2/3 required): 264 - 133 (Roll no. 72).
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).