S. 2585 — MAP for Broadband Funding Act

12%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

MAP for Broadband Funding Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 26 days); 52% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–95 (quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 52% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [47–97]	94%
passage	95%	66 [43–95]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Deb Fischer (R). Latest action (2026-05-11): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 407.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).