S. 2626 — Strengthening United States Leadership at the IDB Act

5%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Strengthening United States Leadership at the IDB Act — on the calendar, quiet for 219 days; 10% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

10%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

48%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 49% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 39–95 (quartiles 53–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 90%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	69 [44–97]	90%
passage	95%	65 [38–95]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: David McCormick (R). Latest action (2025-10-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 240.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).