S. 2735 — Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians Land Transfer Act of 2025

15%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate reported

Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians Land Transfer Act of 2025 — reported and queued; 28% to reach the floor, 15% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

55%

survives downstream

15%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 32–94 (quartiles 51–76). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 47% (simple-majority P = 82%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	67 [40–96]	86%
passage	95%	62 [32–94]	82%

Receipts

Sponsor: Alex Padilla (D). Latest action (2026-05-20): Committee on Indian Affairs. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).