S. 2741 — Legacy Mine Cleanup Act of 2025

32%becomes law high confidencepending: House passed_one_chamber

Legacy Mine Cleanup Act — Senate-passed, waiting on the House, quiet for 198 days; projected 317 yea if called, enactment 32%.

✓

passed the Senate

→

32%

downstream: House + President

32%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 317 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 250–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	12%	278 [165–411]	85%
suspension	88%	322 [211–416]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mark Kelly (D). Latest action (2025-11-20): Held at the desk.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).