S. 278 — Kids Off Social Media Act

3%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Kids Off Social Media Act — would clear the Senate (75%) but only 10% to ever get the vote.

10%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

30%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 75% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 10% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 72 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–97 (quartiles 59–89). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 75% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	73 [47–98]	92%
passage	95%	72 [45–97]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Brian Schatz (D). Latest action (2025-06-30): Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 108.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).