S. 2806 — Eliminate Shutdowns Act

<1%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate on_calendar

Eliminate Shutdowns Act — on the calendar, quiet for 250 days; 1% to reach the floor, <1% to become law.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

52%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 37% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–90 (quartiles 51–70). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 37% (simple-majority P = 91%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	5%	64 [45–94]	90%
passage	95%	60 [44–90]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ron Johnson (R). Latest action (2025-09-29): Motion by Senator Thune to reconsider the vote by which cloture on the motion to proceed to S. 2806 was not invoked (Record Vote No. 533) made in Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).